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Experiment 2: Bayesian Confidence Calibration Simulation
  200 beliefs, 50 sessions, 100 trials
  Exploration weight: 0.05
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/home/user/projects/agentmemory/experiments/exp2_bayesian_calibration.py:291: ConstantInputWarning: An input array is constant; the correlation coefficient is not defined.
  rho, _ = spearmanr(confs, trues)
  Trial 10/100 complete
  Trial 20/100 complete
  Trial 30/100 complete
  Trial 40/100 complete
  Trial 50/100 complete
  Trial 60/100 complete
  Trial 70/100 complete
  Trial 80/100 complete
  Trial 90/100 complete
  Trial 100/100 complete

--- SUMMARY ---

source_informed:
  ECE:          0.1841 +/- 0.0378 (90% CI: 0.1287 - 0.2490)
  Convergence:  0.9998 +/- 0.0020
  Exploration:  0.0000 +/- 0.0000
  Rank corr:    nan +/- nan

uniform_prior:
  ECE:          0.0423 +/- 0.0382 (90% CI: 0.0014 - 0.0970)
  Convergence:  0.7439 +/- 0.1665
  Exploration:  0.0000 +/- 0.0000
  Rank corr:    nan +/- nan

--- REQUIREMENT CHECKS ---
  REQ-009_calibration: FAIL (threshold: ECE < 0.10, result: 0.1841)
  REQ-010_exploration: FAIL (threshold: 0.15 <= exploration <= 0.50, result: 0.0000)
