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Experiment 2: Bayesian Confidence Calibration Simulation
  200 beliefs, 50 sessions, 100 trials
  Exploration weight: 0.05
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/home/user/projects/agentmemory/experiments/exp2_bayesian_calibration.py:286: ConstantInputWarning: An input array is constant; the correlation coefficient is not defined.
  rho, _ = spearmanr(confs, trues)
  Trial 10/100 complete
  Trial 20/100 complete
  Trial 30/100 complete
  Trial 40/100 complete
  Trial 50/100 complete
  Trial 60/100 complete
  Trial 70/100 complete
  Trial 80/100 complete
  Trial 90/100 complete
  Trial 100/100 complete

--- SUMMARY ---

source_informed:
  ECE:          0.3695 +/- 0.0286 (90% CI: 0.3243 - 0.4169)
  Convergence:  0.9998 +/- 0.0020
  Exploration:  0.0000 +/- 0.0000
  Rank corr:    nan +/- nan

uniform_prior:
  ECE:          0.2431 +/- 0.0270 (90% CI: 0.1874 - 0.2815)
  Convergence:  0.7439 +/- 0.1665
  Exploration:  0.0000 +/- 0.0000
  Rank corr:    nan +/- nan

--- REQUIREMENT CHECKS ---
  REQ-009_calibration: FAIL (threshold: ECE < 0.10, result: 0.3695)
  REQ-010_exploration: FAIL (threshold: 0.15 <= exploration <= 0.50, result: 0.0000)
