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Experiment 2c: Calibration Diagnosis
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  H1: Testing effect of IGNORED rate...
    ignored_rate=0.00 -> ECE=0.0285
    ignored_rate=0.10 -> ECE=0.0428
    ignored_rate=0.20 -> ECE=0.1021
    ignored_rate=0.30 -> ECE=0.1631
    ignored_rate=0.50 -> ECE=0.2777
  H2: Testing random vs top-k retrieval...
    random: ECE=0.1629, beliefs tested=100.00%
    topk: ECE=0.2238, beliefs tested=96.35%
  H3: Testing ECE with different bin counts and per-source breakdown...
    5 bins: ECE=0.0106
    10 bins: ECE=0.0123
    20 bins: ECE=0.0123
    50 bins: ECE=0.0123
    user_stated: ECE=0.0263, conf=0.8255, actual=0.8518, true=0.85
    document: ECE=0.0111, conf=0.6315, actual=0.6420, true=0.65
    agent_inferred: ECE=0.0057, conf=0.4642, actual=0.4609, true=0.45
    cross_reference: ECE=0.0062, conf=0.5361, actual=0.5393, true=0.55
  H4: ECE over time (up to 200 sessions)...
    session   5: ECE=0.2387, tested=144, mean_err=0.1580, med_retrievals=1
    session  10: ECE=0.1517, tested=184, mean_err=0.1528, med_retrievals=3
    session  20: ECE=0.1509, tested=200, mean_err=0.1267, med_retrievals=5
    session  50: ECE=0.1566, tested=200, mean_err=0.0913, med_retrievals=12
    session 100: ECE=0.1687, tested=200, mean_err=0.0767, med_retrievals=25
    session 200: ECE=0.1745, tested=200, mean_err=0.0631, med_retrievals=50
  H5: Oracle ECE (beliefs know their true rate, only noise is sampling)...
    Oracle (100 samples each): ECE=0.0030 +/- 0.0001
    Oracle (100 samples, 30% ignored): ECE=0.1835 +/- 0.0026

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DIAGNOSIS SUMMARY
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H1 (IGNORED rate effect):
  0% ignored: ECE=0.0285
  30% ignored: ECE=0.1631
  Verdict: CONFIRMED

H2 (Selection bias):
  Random retrieval: ECE=0.1629, tested=100%
  Top-k retrieval:  ECE=0.2238, tested=96%
  Verdict: CONFIRMED

H4 (Convergence over time):
  Session 5:   ECE=0.2387
  Session 50:  ECE=0.1566
  Session 200: ECE=0.1745

H5 (Theoretical floor):
  Oracle (no noise):     ECE=0.0030
  Oracle (30% ignored):  ECE=0.1835
  -> Minimum achievable ECE with this setup: ~0.0030
